The Playoff Shakedown

Last night wrapped up an interesting year in the league. "The Year of the Headlines," is what it should be referred to as. Beginning with the hectic off-season that saw the likes of LeBron, STAT, CB4(as he was formerly known), Booz and others being bid on like cattle at an auction; all of this in the hopes of assembling the next "super team."

The playoff picture now is looking a lot different than how many predicted it would almost a year prior. The SPURS sit atop the west, with the 'Melo-less NUGGETS in fifth, and the HORNETS and GRIZZLIES riding the tail end of the power conference. The east only had a couple of surprises, namely, the BULLS finishing with the best record in the league and the BUCKS dropping out of playoff contention after such a promising 2009/2010 campaign. The rise of the HEAT wasn't a surprise, but it was a turnaround for the franchise from the previous year to be sure.

We are approaching the second half of April and playoff basketball is in the air. Top seeded teams are fresh after resting key players late in the season and lower seeded teams are full of momentum from fighting for their lives to get in. This all makes for an interesting year of predictions. Below is an in-depth look at the first round match-ups and series prediction to crown a champion! Keep reading The Hot Hand: Hoops Blog for all playoff updates and for second round breakdowns! Enjoy!


EASTERN CONFERENCE - we can start here because the east should hold no surprises. Only the top 4 teams had above 50 wins, the next closest being the HAWKS with 44. Don't expect any upsets in the first round.

BULLS(1) vs. PACERS(8)
The PACERS didn't break .500 this year, but they took some steps in the right direction. Aquiring Darren Collison gave them a legit PG in a league where you can't win without one, and Tyler Hansbrough had an excellent post-all-star break campaign that gives them a legit starting PF. The biggest black eye with the PACERS is the decline in production from their star, Danny Granger. If they want to avoid a sweep from the league-best BULLS, they are going to need Granger to play like he has in previous seasons. The BULLS had the best defense in the league this season and potentially the MVP in Derrick Rose. Defense, consistency, and star players shining bright in the clutch is what you need to go deep in the playoffs. Chicago has all 3. Sorry Indiana, this isn't your year. Outcome: BULLS in 4

HEAT(2) vs. 76ERS(7)
Many people said Miami was going to break the record for most wins in a season this year. Instead, they weren't even close. Their 5th ranked defense and 3rd ranked offense was still good for the third best team in the league and the 2 seed in the east though. Consistency has come into question for the HEAT and as a result a lot of "heat" (bad pun?) has been put on head coach Eric Spoelstra. Unlike Spoelstra, the 76RS coach, Doug Collins, is in the running for coach of the year. Phili started off on the wrong foot, but a change in coaching schemes by Collins resulted in them clawing their way to the 7th seed. Phili is a scrappy, young team with lots of athletes. This isn't enough to get by the Big 2 and half (sorry Bosh). Outcome: HEAT in 6

CELTICS(3) vs. KNICKS(6)
An interesting series between two storied franchises with huge fan bases. Home court will play a huge role in this series. Boston looked like they were geared up for another run to the finals until they traded center Kendrick Perkins. The injury to Shaquille O'Neal also hurts them at the pivot. Good thing for New York, since that is the only position they lack. The KNICKS stumbled into the playoffs behind 'Melo's clutch shooting, but look for them to make a splash in the post-season. The have 3 prime-time performers that will give the CELTICS a run for their money. Ultimately, Boston's experience and size up front will overpower the KNICKS. Outcome: CELTICS in 6

MAGIC(4) vs. HAWKS(5)
A repeat of the second round matchup last year between these 2 teams and not much has changed. The HAWKS still play a small, slow style of ball that suits their star, Joe Johnson. Orlando still depends on defense, where they ranked 3rd, and the dominance of Dwight Howard.Thus, the outcome won't change much. Outcome: MAGIC in 5


WESTERN CONFERENCE - a much more interesting series of matchups out in the west. 5 teams finished with over 50 wins and 3 more finished with over 46. The top 11 teams in the west have good enough records to be in the east playoff race.

SPURS(1) vs. GRIZZLIES(8)
The SPURS were a big surprise this year. General consensus was the SPURS were on the decline. Tim Duncan, arguably the best PF in history, is in his mid 30s and his production is decreasing as a result. Instead of allowing mother nature to cruelly impede their quest for a championship, Gregg Popovich, another coach of the year candidate, installed a new system. Lead by Manu Ginobli, the SPURS turned to a run-and-gun offense and steered away from their slow, half-court roots. The result was 61 wins and top seed in the tough west. But the boys down in Memphis should not be taken lightly. 46 wins and the 8th ranked defense makes them a legitimate foe for the SPURS. This series hinges on the results of the MRI on Manu Ginobli's hyper extended arm he suffered in the last game of the regular season. Assuming he comes back (he is tough like that): SPURS in 6

LAKERS(2) vs. HORNETS(7)
L.A. has relatively the same team they won the championship with the last 2 years which us tells us one very important thing: the LAKERS' regular season record doesn't show how good this team really is. They have been known for their ability to "flip the switch." But the thing is, it's playoffs. It's Kobe. It's Phil. All of that doubt is fuel to the championship winning machine that is the LAKERS. New Orleans had a great run this year considering how poor their roster looks on paper. The injury to David West ensures their demise in the first round. The lack of depth and size will be what the LAKERS prey on (like they do to every other team). This series won't be close, except the one game the HORNETS win because L.A. flips off the switch. Outcome: LAKERS in 5

MAVERICKS(3) vs. BLAZERS(6)
Nothing too much to say about Dallas this year. They did what they always do: win. The BLAZERS also did what they always do: get injured. Without Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, and Marcus Camby for much of the season the BLAZERS had to find answers elsewhere. They found the answers in the immense amount of depth they have every year to cope with injuries. Led by Wesley Matthews and LaMarcus Aldridge, who put together their best seasons of their careers, the BLAZERS were competitive all year in the west. They brought in Gerald Wallace at trade deadline and now Roy and Camby are back from injury. If they can get everyone rolling in the playoffs I am really excited for what this team can do. This could be because of my lack of faith in the MAVS in the post-season, but: BLAZERS in 7 (sorry Evan)

THUNDER(4) vs. NUGGETS(5)
This will be the most exciting series of the first round. So much young talent on display that you won't be able to help but think future champions. OKC has been playing great all year and have a couple of clutch performers in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The NUGGETS are arguably the hottest team in the league since the trade deadline when they traded 'Melo. Denver's depth is staggering and depth is always crucial in a 7 game series. Expect high paced action, tight games, and big plays by star players. Outcome: THUNDER in 7


ROUND 2
East-
CHI vs. ORL: CHI in 6
MIA vs. BOS: BOS in 7

West-
SAS vs. OKC: OKC in 7
LAL vs. POR: LAL in 7

CONFERENCE FINALS
CHI vs. BOS: CHI in 7
LAL vs. OKC: LAL in 6

FINALS
CHI vs. LAL: LAL in 7