First Round Report Card

As always, what we expected to happen in the playoffs didn't exactly work out as planned. Though each series is only 2 games in, the way most of the series have progressed comes as a surprise to most. Who would have thought the LAKERS would lose game one at home to the HORNETS? Probably not many of us. I'm going to grade each series on a letter scale from F to A+. F will indicate that the series is a shocker and an A+ means that the series is continuing soundly.


EASTERN CONFERENCE

BULLS(1) vs. PACERS(8)
Chicago leads the series 2-0 as most expected. The BULLS are just a superior team in every fashion and the series score shows it. However, I give Indiana credit for being able to stick with BULLS. In game 1, the PACERS had the lead the entire game until the dying minutes of the final quarter when Derrick Rose ended their hopes of a game 1 upset. I know I predicted a series sweep by the BULLS, but don't be surprised if Indiana takes one at home with their crowd behind them. GRADE: C- (passing, but not by a lot)

HEAT(2) vs. 76ERS(7)
Miami leads the series 2-0 which isn't much of a surprise. The way the first 2 games progressed, however, comes as a surprise to me. I thought Phili was going to put up a good fight in this series but it has clearly been the most one-sided in the playoffs. Miami has dominated the 76ERS other than certain stretches in game 1. My prediction could have been skewed as a result of my lack of faith in the HEAT, but they are impressing me. A first round sweep might end Phili's season. GRADE: D (surprise to me, but probably not to people who believe in the HEAT)

CELTICS(3) vs. KNICKS(6)
Boston leads the series 2-0 as expected. Home court has proven to be the CELTICS advantage in this series thus far, as their ability to lock-up defensively down the stretch has been what has won them games and much of that fire comes from the crowd. Melo' was great in game 2 and Amar'e was great in game 1, which ensured that KNICKS were close. Chauncy Billups and Amar'e Stoudemire both sat out game 2 with injuries which makes you wonder 2 things in particular: Would New York have won game 2 with them in lineup? And how can Amar'e say Pau Gasol is soft when he dresses in a suit and tie in the playoffs because of sore back? Kobe played a season with a broken finger. It's time to take of the dress, put down the fairy wand, and put on the jersey. GRADE: A (look for New York to win a couple at home coming up)

MAGIC(4) vs. HAWKS(5)
This series has not gone the way I expected it at all. The HAWKS appeared to be uninterested all year and seemed to be at the end of every punchline. Besides that, these 2 teams played in the post season last year and Orlando swept them. Such is the cruel mistress that is expectation. Orlando expects it to be a cake-walk and Atlanta comes out with something to prove. Dwight Howard has been a absolute monster in the series and probably the best player in the playoffs so far. With a MAGIC team that relies so heavily on Howard's production, it's hard to believe the MAGIC lost one at home and series is tied at 1. GRADE: F (impressed with the HAWKS, disappointed with the MAGIC minus Howard)


WESTERN CONFERENCE

SPURS(1) vs. GRIZZLIES(8)
The series is tied at 1-1, which isn't a surprise considering Manu Ginobili didn't suit up game one with a sore elbow. The SPURS sort of stumbled into the playoffs and it's showing. I still expect San Antonio to take this series but not without a fight. GRADE: A (Manu is back, which gives the SPURS is the upper hand)

LAKERS(2) vs. HORNETS(7)
Wow, Chris Paul. The series is tied 1-1, and CP3 has made his mark. The All-Star PG single-handedly beat the LAKERS in game one. It was a surprise because it was game 1 and in L.A., but it isn't a surprise that the HORNETS beat the LAKERS once. Like I said last week, L.A. can turn off the switch, and that's what they did. I still don't expect the series to be close the rest of the way. GRADE: B (I thought the HORNETS would steal one at home, not on the road. But it doesn't change that the LAKERS will win)

MAVERICKS(3) vs. BLAZERS(6)
The MAVS lead this series 2-0 and it has been a lot more one sided then I predicted. My lack of faith in the post season prowess of Dallas might have been falsely placed (you're welcome Evan). Their play has been impressive thus far and they have dominated the BLAZERS for most of each game. The one reason this report card wont get an F is that the series is now swinging to Portland which gives them a chance to even the series before they go back on the road. If the BLAZERS don't take advantage of their home court in game 4 and 5 then this series will end in 5 or 6. GRADE: D

THUNDER(4) vs. NUGGETS(5)
OKC leads the series 2-0. Game 1 was exactly as I expected: a close and exciting game. Denver lost game 2 by 17, which was a poor effort on their part. Look for this young NUGGETS team to bounce back and fight hard on their home court. This series still has a lot of basketball to be played. GRADE: B

The Playoff Shakedown

Last night wrapped up an interesting year in the league. "The Year of the Headlines," is what it should be referred to as. Beginning with the hectic off-season that saw the likes of LeBron, STAT, CB4(as he was formerly known), Booz and others being bid on like cattle at an auction; all of this in the hopes of assembling the next "super team."

The playoff picture now is looking a lot different than how many predicted it would almost a year prior. The SPURS sit atop the west, with the 'Melo-less NUGGETS in fifth, and the HORNETS and GRIZZLIES riding the tail end of the power conference. The east only had a couple of surprises, namely, the BULLS finishing with the best record in the league and the BUCKS dropping out of playoff contention after such a promising 2009/2010 campaign. The rise of the HEAT wasn't a surprise, but it was a turnaround for the franchise from the previous year to be sure.

We are approaching the second half of April and playoff basketball is in the air. Top seeded teams are fresh after resting key players late in the season and lower seeded teams are full of momentum from fighting for their lives to get in. This all makes for an interesting year of predictions. Below is an in-depth look at the first round match-ups and series prediction to crown a champion! Keep reading The Hot Hand: Hoops Blog for all playoff updates and for second round breakdowns! Enjoy!


EASTERN CONFERENCE - we can start here because the east should hold no surprises. Only the top 4 teams had above 50 wins, the next closest being the HAWKS with 44. Don't expect any upsets in the first round.

BULLS(1) vs. PACERS(8)
The PACERS didn't break .500 this year, but they took some steps in the right direction. Aquiring Darren Collison gave them a legit PG in a league where you can't win without one, and Tyler Hansbrough had an excellent post-all-star break campaign that gives them a legit starting PF. The biggest black eye with the PACERS is the decline in production from their star, Danny Granger. If they want to avoid a sweep from the league-best BULLS, they are going to need Granger to play like he has in previous seasons. The BULLS had the best defense in the league this season and potentially the MVP in Derrick Rose. Defense, consistency, and star players shining bright in the clutch is what you need to go deep in the playoffs. Chicago has all 3. Sorry Indiana, this isn't your year. Outcome: BULLS in 4

HEAT(2) vs. 76ERS(7)
Many people said Miami was going to break the record for most wins in a season this year. Instead, they weren't even close. Their 5th ranked defense and 3rd ranked offense was still good for the third best team in the league and the 2 seed in the east though. Consistency has come into question for the HEAT and as a result a lot of "heat" (bad pun?) has been put on head coach Eric Spoelstra. Unlike Spoelstra, the 76RS coach, Doug Collins, is in the running for coach of the year. Phili started off on the wrong foot, but a change in coaching schemes by Collins resulted in them clawing their way to the 7th seed. Phili is a scrappy, young team with lots of athletes. This isn't enough to get by the Big 2 and half (sorry Bosh). Outcome: HEAT in 6

CELTICS(3) vs. KNICKS(6)
An interesting series between two storied franchises with huge fan bases. Home court will play a huge role in this series. Boston looked like they were geared up for another run to the finals until they traded center Kendrick Perkins. The injury to Shaquille O'Neal also hurts them at the pivot. Good thing for New York, since that is the only position they lack. The KNICKS stumbled into the playoffs behind 'Melo's clutch shooting, but look for them to make a splash in the post-season. The have 3 prime-time performers that will give the CELTICS a run for their money. Ultimately, Boston's experience and size up front will overpower the KNICKS. Outcome: CELTICS in 6

MAGIC(4) vs. HAWKS(5)
A repeat of the second round matchup last year between these 2 teams and not much has changed. The HAWKS still play a small, slow style of ball that suits their star, Joe Johnson. Orlando still depends on defense, where they ranked 3rd, and the dominance of Dwight Howard.Thus, the outcome won't change much. Outcome: MAGIC in 5


WESTERN CONFERENCE - a much more interesting series of matchups out in the west. 5 teams finished with over 50 wins and 3 more finished with over 46. The top 11 teams in the west have good enough records to be in the east playoff race.

SPURS(1) vs. GRIZZLIES(8)
The SPURS were a big surprise this year. General consensus was the SPURS were on the decline. Tim Duncan, arguably the best PF in history, is in his mid 30s and his production is decreasing as a result. Instead of allowing mother nature to cruelly impede their quest for a championship, Gregg Popovich, another coach of the year candidate, installed a new system. Lead by Manu Ginobli, the SPURS turned to a run-and-gun offense and steered away from their slow, half-court roots. The result was 61 wins and top seed in the tough west. But the boys down in Memphis should not be taken lightly. 46 wins and the 8th ranked defense makes them a legitimate foe for the SPURS. This series hinges on the results of the MRI on Manu Ginobli's hyper extended arm he suffered in the last game of the regular season. Assuming he comes back (he is tough like that): SPURS in 6

LAKERS(2) vs. HORNETS(7)
L.A. has relatively the same team they won the championship with the last 2 years which us tells us one very important thing: the LAKERS' regular season record doesn't show how good this team really is. They have been known for their ability to "flip the switch." But the thing is, it's playoffs. It's Kobe. It's Phil. All of that doubt is fuel to the championship winning machine that is the LAKERS. New Orleans had a great run this year considering how poor their roster looks on paper. The injury to David West ensures their demise in the first round. The lack of depth and size will be what the LAKERS prey on (like they do to every other team). This series won't be close, except the one game the HORNETS win because L.A. flips off the switch. Outcome: LAKERS in 5

MAVERICKS(3) vs. BLAZERS(6)
Nothing too much to say about Dallas this year. They did what they always do: win. The BLAZERS also did what they always do: get injured. Without Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, and Marcus Camby for much of the season the BLAZERS had to find answers elsewhere. They found the answers in the immense amount of depth they have every year to cope with injuries. Led by Wesley Matthews and LaMarcus Aldridge, who put together their best seasons of their careers, the BLAZERS were competitive all year in the west. They brought in Gerald Wallace at trade deadline and now Roy and Camby are back from injury. If they can get everyone rolling in the playoffs I am really excited for what this team can do. This could be because of my lack of faith in the MAVS in the post-season, but: BLAZERS in 7 (sorry Evan)

THUNDER(4) vs. NUGGETS(5)
This will be the most exciting series of the first round. So much young talent on display that you won't be able to help but think future champions. OKC has been playing great all year and have a couple of clutch performers in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The NUGGETS are arguably the hottest team in the league since the trade deadline when they traded 'Melo. Denver's depth is staggering and depth is always crucial in a 7 game series. Expect high paced action, tight games, and big plays by star players. Outcome: THUNDER in 7


ROUND 2
East-
CHI vs. ORL: CHI in 6
MIA vs. BOS: BOS in 7

West-
SAS vs. OKC: OKC in 7
LAL vs. POR: LAL in 7

CONFERENCE FINALS
CHI vs. BOS: CHI in 7
LAL vs. OKC: LAL in 6

FINALS
CHI vs. LAL: LAL in 7